Sat. Jan 23rd, 2021

17th Bihar Assembly has been concluded. Analysis of post-election data would reveal how it is constituted and party wise performance. As we all know there were two main alliances in 2020 Assembly election. NDA was one such alliance whereas Mahagadhbandhan (MGB) was another one. BJP (Bhartiya Janta Party), JDU (Janata Dal United), HAM (Hindustani Awam Morcha) and VIP (Vikassheel Insaan Party) were part of NDA while RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal), Congress, CPI, CPI (M) and CPI (ML) together formed MGB. Nitish Kumar was Chief Minister candidate of NDA and Tejashwi Yadav was the opposing leader from MGB. The result of all 243 seats gave thin edge to NDA over MGB. The final seat tally was NDA 125 and MGB 110. Asaduddin Owaisi party AIMIM got 5 seats. Chirag Paswan led LJP got 1 seat against 137 seats it contested while 1 seat each was won by BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party) and an Independent. RJD is single largest party with 75 seats followed by BJP (74 Seat). Congress could manage only 19 seats out of 70 it contested. JDU’s show in this election was a setback to Nitish Kumar as it could get only 43 seats as against 71 it won in last Assembly election 2015. Left parties had good show this time by securing 16 seats with CPI being the biggest gainer with 12 seats. RJD was able to connect more with Rural and Semi Urban voters than Urban Voters. It got 48 seats from rural areas, 17 from Semi Urban and 10 from Urban areas. BJP secured 38, 14 and 22 seats respectively from these areas. The number of seats won by these two parties in these areas represent that Modi magic and campaigning by other firebrand leaders like Yogi Adityanath was less effective in Rural and Semi Urban areas than Tejashwi Yadav. With 18 seats won by RJD in 52 Muslim seats was ahead of BJP which won 15 seats. Congress got 6 seats. JDU could get only 3 seats. Thus, Tejashwi was able to gain confidence of MY equation on these seats and Nitish Kumar with all his rhetoric for their welfare had no impact at all. AIMIM won all its 5 seats from these 52 seats. However, BJP wrested more seats (10) from 40 reserved constituencies than any other party. JDU returned with 10 seats and RJD with 9 seats. The election in 2020 was conducted in 3 phases. RJD was ahead of all parties in Phase 1 (31 seats, BJP 12 and JDU 6) and lagged behind in Third phase (BJP 30, JDU 21, RJD 12). Nitish Kumar appeal to voters that this election is his last election could have been the reason of JDU gain in Third phase. Though BJP won 74 seats, its vote share was only 19.5 % votes cast. RJD vote share is 23.1% which gave it 75 seats. JDU vote share is 15.39% to get 43 seats. Congress could not get double figure vote share and it is only 9.48%. The constitution of Bihar Assembly in 2020 may give a boost to BJP and RJD both while its an alarm bell for Nitish Kumar and JDU.

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